Eurasian integration and the internal socio-political conflict potential of the Central Asian region
Research Article
How to Cite
Seleznev I.A. Eurasian integration and the internal socio-political conflict potential of the Central Asian region. Science. Culture. Society. 2021. Vol. 27. No. 4. P. 6-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/nko.2021.27.4.1 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The article examines the internal security challenges in the Central Asian region (CAR), the causes of conflicts within the countries of the region. The article describes the general and special features of the socio-political situation in the CAR countries. This study was conducted within the framework of the theory of conflict. The paper uses the author's typology of costs and risks on the path of interstate integration: growth risks (economic, social, security) and immanent risks, as well as characteristics of the nature of regional conflicts. The author analyzes Russia's interests in the CAR, the conflict potential of the region, and the prospects for the development of Eurasian integration in the region. The main conflict-causing internal political factors are: poverty of the population, the growth of social differentiation, high unemployment, an overabundance of the able-bodied population, socio-economic instability; the archaization of public life; interethnic contradictions; the presence of a religious fundamentalist and extremist underground, waiting for the moment to seize power; the spread of drug addiction and the activities of organized criminal communities engaged in transit drug trafficking; the threat of political destabilization of the region both in the process of transferring power to a new generation of leaders and the change of leadership elites. Eurasian integration can strengthen the Russian vector in the policies of the countries involved in Eurasian integration, but it will not eliminate the influence of other vectors, it will only balance them. Participation in the Eurasian integration can help the CAR countries strengthen their independence and sovereignty. Since foreign "multi-vector" policy, often understood as a distance from Russia, leads to an increase in dependence on other centers of power, which ultimately contradicts the national interests of the CAR nations themselves.
Keywords:
Central Asian region, CSTO, EAЕU, Eurasian integration, regional conflicts, socio-political tension
References
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2. Alekseeva N. N., Ivanova I. S. (2003) Middle or Central Asia? Geografiya. Pervoe sentyabrya. No. 28. Pp. 13-17 (in Russ.).
3. Pritchin S. A. (2020) Russia’s policy in central Asia in the XXI-th сent. National Strategy Issues. No. 6 (63). Pp. 76-92 (in Russ.).
4. Eurasian integration processes: socio-political dimension (2018) Ed. by G. I. Osadchaya. M. : BIBLIO-GLOBUS. 374 p. DOI: 10.18334/9785907063150. ISBN 978-5-907063-15-0 (in Russ.).
5. The Trends of World Social-Political Development under the Crizis conditions (2012) Ed. by E. Sh. Gontmakher, N. V. Zagladin. M. : IMEMO RAS Publ. 150 p. ISBN 978-5-9535-0331-0 (in Russ.).
6. Osipov G. V., Levashov V. K., Ryazantsev S. V. [et al.] (2020) Rossiiskoe obshchestvo i gosudarstvo v usloviyakh pandemii: sotsial’no-politicheskoe polozhenie i demograficheskoe razvitie Rossiiskoi Federatsii v 2020 godu [Russian society and state in the conditions of pandemic: sociopolitical situation and demographic development of the Russian Federation in 2020]. M. : Perspektiva Publ. 532 p. ISBN 978-5-905790-48-5. DOI: 10.38085/978-5-905790-48-5-2020-1-532 (in Russ.).
7. Tsyplin V. G. (2020) Features of strengthening military-technical capacity of CSTO member states in 2019. In : Voennaya istoriya Rossii: problemy, poiski, resheniya [Military History of Russia: problems, searches, solutions]: Materialy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchnoi konferentsii, posvyashchennoi 75-letiyu Pobedy v Velikoi Otechestvennoi voine: v 3 ch. (Volgograd, September 11–12, 2020). Volgograd. Pp. 40-48 (in Russ.).
8. Fomin M. V. (2010) Russia. Matrix of social (in)stability. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. No. 8. Pp. 56-68. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2010-8-56-68 (in Russ.).
9. Fomin M. V. (2010) Russia in global conflicts. Horizon – 2019. In : Rossiya v novom veke: vneshnepoliticheskoe izmerenie [Russia in the new century: the foreign policy dimension]. Sbornik materialov zasedanii Ehkspertnogo soveta Komiteta Soveta Federatsii po mezhdunarodnym delam za 2009 god. Ed. by A. A. Aslakhanov, V. M. Solov’ev, S. V. Kortunov. Moscow. Pp. 157- 161 (in Russ.).
10. Seleznev I. A. (2020) On the first results of Eurasian integration. achievements and risks of the Eurasian Economic Union. Socialno-gumanitarniye znaniya. No. 6. Pp. 164-176. DOI: 10.34823/SGZ.2020.5.51488 (in Russ.).
11. Zhuravlev V. E. (2019) On some trends of the Eurasian economic integration. Bulletin of the Institute of World Civilizations. Vol. 10. No. 3(24). Pp. 5-9 (in Russ.).
12. Levashov V. K., Shushpanova I. S., Afanasyev V. A., Novozhenina O. P. (2019) Russian civil society and the state in the processes of Eurasian integration. Science. Culture. Society. No. 3-4. Pp. 66-77. DOI: 10.38085/2308829X-2019-3-4-66-77 (in Russ.).
13. Evseev V. O., Seleznev I. A. (2021) Conflict management and research methods regional conflicts. CITISE. No. 3. Pp. 79-95. DOI: 10.15350/2409-7616.2021.3.07 (in Russ.).
14. Rekk D. A., Yegorov V. G. (2020) Socio-political evolution of Central Asian clans. Social’nye i gumanitarnye znanija. Vol. 6, No. 3(23). Pp. 250-259. DOI: 10.18255/2412-6519-2020-3-250-259 (in Russ.).
15. Profilaktika terrorizma i ehkstremizma v molodezhnoi srede [Preventing terrorism and extremism among young people]. Ed. by A. P. Novikov. M. : Rus’ Publ., 2018. 96 p. ISBN 978-5-8090-0093-2 (in Russ.).
16. Seleznev I. A. (2017) The role of the CSTO and the SCO in providing the security of the states of the Central Asia. Socialno-gumanitarniye znaniya. No. 4. Pp. 143-152 (in Russ.).
Article
Received: 25.10.2021
Accepted: 13.12.2021
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Seleznev, I. A. (2021). Eurasian integration and the internal socio-political conflict potential of the Central Asian region. Science. Culture. Society, 27(4), 6-16. https://doi.org/10.19181/nko.2021.27.4.1
Section
Modern political processes in Russia and abroad
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Publisher: Institute of Socio-Political Research of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISPR FCTAS RAS)